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What Is Market Capitalisation in Crypto? Two Denominators, Two Stories
Market capitalisation is a price multiplied by a quantity that somebody defines, and the definition is where the number goes wrong: circulating, total and maximum supply produce different answers for the same asset on the same day. The gap between market value and fully diluted valuation measures the dilution still ahead, and it is the most concrete fact available about a young token.- 1
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Bitcoin’s Third Quarter, Reconciled Against What Was Expected
Four variables were forecast publicly before the quarter began. The jobs report missed by an order of magnitude and the market treated it as good news; the policy path turned less restrictive without the rate moving; fund flows beat the estimate by reversing; and the asset rose 42.7 percent while the consensus was cautious. A reconciliation of the four lines, and the two conclusions that survive it.- 3
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Uptober Is a Statistic, Not a Signal: Bitcoin’s October 2026 Setup in Four Numbers
October has closed higher in 10 of the last 13 years, with a 19.92 percent average gain, and October 2025 still finished red after about $19 billion of leverage was liquidated in two days. Going into October 2026 four numbers disagree: a $2.39 billion ETF week that ended in outflow, 41,025 BTC added to whale wallets, and a funding rate at the 0th percentile of 90 days.- 12
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Bitcoin’s $500,000 Target Is Five Years Old and Still Two Years Away
This week produced a $100,000 call, a $300,000 call and a $500,000 call. One of those numbers has been on the table since 2021, and its deadline has moved every time it came due.- 11
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