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A Circuit Split on Prediction Markets Is a Path to the Supreme Court.
Three US appeals courts now disagree about whether event contracts are swaps. The Sixth Circuit's ruling did not settle the question; it made it national.- 20
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Prediction Markets Hit a $20.4 Billion Week. The Notional Is $1 a Contract.
Prediction markets booked a record $20.4 billion of weekly volume in early October 2026, with Kalshi taking about $15.8 billion of it. Sports contracts are roughly 81 percent of Kalshi's volume, and the headline number counts every contract at one dollar of notional regardless of price. Three appeals courts now disagree on whether the product is a derivative or a bet.- 7
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Prediction Markets’ Real Problem Isn’t the Courts
The 3rd, 6th and 9th Circuits disagree on who regulates event contracts. That fight is downstream of the real question: who resolves the contract.- 32
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