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The CLARITY Act Failed. Crypto Now Runs on a Rulemaking Calendar.
The market-structure bill died 49-50 in the Senate, and within a fortnight two agencies had sent rule drafts to the White House, two comment periods were closing in the same week of October, and a stablecoin framework with a statutory effective date was being written by three regulators. Nobody voted for any of it, and each instrument has a different lifespan.- 7
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Prediction Markets Hit a $20.4 Billion Week. The Notional Is $1 a Contract.
Prediction markets booked a record $20.4 billion of weekly volume in early October 2026, with Kalshi taking about $15.8 billion of it. Sports contracts are roughly 81 percent of Kalshi's volume, and the headline number counts every contract at one dollar of notional regardless of price. Three appeals courts now disagree on whether the product is a derivative or a bet.- 8
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Crypto Built the Rails. Wall Street Is Signing the Lease.
Kalshi’s appeal and the Bitget hack were the noise. The real story is that equities are being rerouted onto rails crypto built, and the only question that matters is who owns those rails and who pays the maintenance.- 48
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Prediction Markets’ Real Problem Isn’t the Courts
The 3rd, 6th and 9th Circuits disagree on who regulates event contracts. That fight is downstream of the real question: who resolves the contract.- 33
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Crypto Got a Spec Instead of a Law: Inside the Fed, SEC and CFTC Rule Sprint
The Clarity Act failed 49-50 in the Senate. Within 48 hours the SEC, CFTC and Fed published their own rules - turning a legislative defeat into something builders can actually read: an interface spec, with all the fragility that implies.- 15
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