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Bitcoin’s Third Quarter, Reconciled Against What Was Expected
Four variables were forecast publicly before the quarter began. The jobs report missed by an order of magnitude and the market treated it as good news; the policy path turned less restrictive without the rate moving; fund flows beat the estimate by reversing; and the asset rose 42.7 percent while the consensus was cautious. A reconciliation of the four lines, and the two conclusions that survive it.- 3
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The U.S. Starts Writing Stablecoin Rules: What the Fed’s Proposal and Treasury’s GENIUS Rule Change
On Sept 24 the Fed proposed 100% reserve and capital rules for stablecoin issuers; on Sept 30 Treasury published its first binding GENIUS Act rule. What the two-tier market looks like.- 36
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A Jobs Report Moved Bitcoin. The Funding Rate Moved Faster.
The payrolls print cooled rate-hike odds and lifted bitcoin, but the louder move was in the cost of leverage: perpetual funding roughly tripled, and that reprices every crowded long.- 5
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Bitcoin’s Move to $86,000: Drivers, Consequences, and the Data That Was Neither
Bitcoin touched the high $86,000s on 2 October 2026, a third straight weekly gain after a 43 percent quarter. Only two numbers in the week could actually explain it: ten-year Treasury yields at 5.34 percent easing to about 5.25, and a short-heavy leveraged book forced to buy. Fund flows and liquidations described the move; oil, European bond spreads and the dollar merely accompanied it.- 6
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Crypto Got a Spec Instead of a Law: Inside the Fed, SEC and CFTC Rule Sprint
The Clarity Act failed 49-50 in the Senate. Within 48 hours the SEC, CFTC and Fed published their own rules - turning a legislative defeat into something builders can actually read: an interface spec, with all the fragility that implies.- 15
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